Environmental Outline
# 5:
Population Growth and
Decay
copyright Joseph Hull and Greg Langkamp
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Population: all individuals
of the same specie in the same life zone/ecosystem/habitat
ex: human
population on Planet Earth; gypsy moth population in Ballard, etc.
over 6 billion H.sapiens on Earth and about 1 moth in Ballard
population
growth can reflect favorable conditions for reproduction and survival
substantial habitat, adequate nutrition, few predators, little disease,
etc.
population
decay/decline can reflect poor reproduction and/or low survival rates
populations CAN
vary without much change in external/"forcing" variables
some
organisms have "boom-bust" cycles despite uniform conditions
Population Structure/Composition:
related to reproduction and survival
age structure:
distribution of ages within the population
each age group has its own death rate, highest in elderly, low in youth
age important for reproduction too: females have reproductive window
in humans, from about 15-45 years.
sex structure:
distribution of males and females for each age bracket
in humans, males>females in infancy, females>>males in old age
combine these
two variables to make population pyramid
barrel-shaped pyramid indicates relatively stable or declining population
cone-shaped pyramid typical of high population growth
Population Variables:
birth, death and movement into and out of population
crude birth
rate: number of live births per 1000 individuals in population
humans, continent to continent, 10--40/1000 (mean = 23/1000)
2.3% is a very high birth rate, but has declined during 20th century
refined birth
rate: live births per 1000 females between 15-45 years of age
death rate:
deaths per 1000 individuals. humans, 7-15/1000, 9/1000 = mean
growth/decay
rate: birth - death rates. mean human growth rate = .014
1.4% growth is very high, but down from 1963 value of 2.2%
immigration
rate: number of individuals immigrating INTO the population
humans: quite variable, few countries have substantial immigration
(US, CAN...
emigration
rate: number of individuals emigrating OUT of the population
wars, famine, disease, politics, religion, povertyóall drive emigration
in humans
net migration
rate: immigration rate ? emigration rate
immigrants and emigrants change the birth and death rates, depending
Population Modelling:
% change indicates exponential growth: J shaped curve
BUT linear component
as well with fixed amounts of immigrants and emigrants
leads to combined linear and exponential difference equation model
BUT rates of
birth and death may change with time as well
ex: growth rate often decreases as population reaches limit of resources
produces S-shaped curve of X = time versus Y = population
population may reach a stable value = carrying capacity of ecosystem
reliable modelling of future populations
depends upon accurate predictions of rates
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