Business
& Technology: Sunday, May 23, 2004
Job Market
Dismal science? Economists find
forecasting fascinating
By Levi J. Long
Seattle Times staff reporter
Good luck predicting the
weather in Seattle. One day it's warm and sunny, the next cold and cloudy.
Predicting the region's
economy can be just as tough, if not tougher.
There are a lot of
similarities between economists and meteorologists, says Dick Conway, an
economic researcher and co-publisher of The Puget Sound Economic Forecaster, a
regional newsletter.
"We both deal with
unpredictable and complex factors ... and we can't always predict an accurate
forecast."
Maybe not, but when
economists speak these days, lots of folks listen — from presidential candidates
to the underemployed and unemployed waiting for the economy's expansion to
bring more good, new jobs.
Following Northwest
trends
As a regional economist,
Conway analyzes trends in labor and industry for businesses and governments in
the Northwest.
His research and consulting
firm, Dick Conway and Associates, counts Northwest utilities, other major
companies and state agencies as clients while a co-owned company, Conway
Pedersen Economics, publishes the newsletter.
"Much of the work I do
helps businesses and governments plan for the future," he says.
For example, he might look
at employment figures in a utility's service area and, using specialized
statistical methods, project expected growth so the utility can calculate
energy and employment needs, costs of proposed projects and expected revenue.
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Employers seek analytic
skills
Many more people study
economics in college than become professional economists.
A bachelor's degree in
economics can serve as a good background for careers in business, for example,
with retailers, accounting firms, banks or insurance companies.
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Employers
look for the kind of analytic skills developed in economics studies, says Neil
Bruce, chairman of the University of Washington's economics department.
For those with a bachelor's
degree who want to stay in the field, jobs might be found as research
assistants with development, scientific-research, technology and consulting
firms or with government agencies.
A competitive field
"It's a very
competitive field," says Bruce. "I tell my students a (bachelor's)
degree in economics only serves to get your foot in the door. There's no
entitlement to a job with an (undergraduate) economics degree."
To be a forecaster or any
kind of senior-level economist, whether at a university or in the private
sector, graduate school is the way to go. Getting in isn't easy, though.
For example, UW's economics
graduate program, ranked among the nation's top 20, gets more than 400
applicants each year. Fewer than 25 are selected.
Economics researcher Conway
took a nontraditional path into the field.
He was recruited to play
baseball at Stanford University during the late 1960s and decided to major in
engineering and minor in economics.
After college, Conway
joined the Peace Corps.
He taught algebra and
trigonometry classes in a village in the West African country of Sierra Leone.
"That's where I really
grew up," he says. There was nothing else to do there besides teach.
"I spent four hours a day reading. I spent more time reading than ever
before."
That included studying
economics further.
After returning to
Washington three years later, he earned an MBA from the UW.
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"But
I don't regret getting my degree in engineering. As an engineer, I was taught
to think analytically. (Engineering) gave me the tools of math and logic to
process information and helped prepare me for a career in economics,"
Conway says.
"That's why they call
economics a science. It's similar to methods engineers and physicists
follow."
But not exactly. Economics
has to take into account human behavior.In physics, scientists can predict
exactly how fast a dropped rock will travel using Newton's law.
"With rocks, you always
know they'll hit the ground at the same time," Conway says.
Humans are more random.
"In economics, you can
give ten people $10, and they'll all do something different. As a group,
their behavior will almost always be predictable.
"But it's not a strict
law; not everyone will be doing the same thing," Conway says.
And that, he says, is what
makes his job harder but a lot more interesting.